Dorchester 2010

Going to Dorchester 2010 today -- right after I guest-host for Jayne Carroll on AM-1360 KUIK -- wow, what a day this is shaping up to be.

Mug Shot

This has some personal significance:
http://www.daviesscojail.org/InmateList/InmateView.aspx?ID=2093189

Not sure I want to blog about it right now.  I do want to save the link.

Risk, cognitive bias, and the role of government

Humans are terrible at estimating risk.  Bad enough that I'd be willing to call it an area of potential market failure -- i.e. people will underestimate the risks they face, under-prepare for them, and then be over-impacted by them. 

Take my world view from about 1986, when I felt everyone should be accountable for all their decisions without exception, and it was morally acceptable for me to contemplate a worker (a) choosing not to be insured under WC, (b) getting injured on the job, and (c) impoverishing himself and his family.  So sacred was his choice that I was willing to see any negative outcome unfold.  As long as he'd chosen his actions, I was okay with his fall.

Now, reading Cialdini and numerous other sources on the horrific list of cognitive biases (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases) to which the human mind is susceptible, I'm much more willing to embrace at least some "coercive" rules such as mandatory workers' comp insurance. 

The big risk here, for me, is that as soon as I empower someone -- almost always the government -- to use coercion to "fix" the cognitive errors of the population at large, the concept (or illusion) of individual autonomy  and "consent of the governed" can break down, and the legitimacy of the government can break down. 

Doubly so because the government is no less susceptible to error, being made up of humans, and while I can easily correct my personal errors by changing my behavior, it's very hard for me to either change or opt out of the erroneous coercive mandates of a nanny state.

The graceful way forward may be to use cognitive bias in our favor, by allowing people to "opt out" of certain things if it matters to them a lot, while making the default choice be the one that has greater social protection.  For example I'm in favor of making everyone an organ donor by default, while allowing anyone who really cares strongly to opt out.

The mindset of a Leftist

Just had an amazing conversation (well, a series of Facebook comments) with an apparent union troll who insists that Measures 66 and 67 are fabulous and wonderful.

Here's the absolute gem of a quote:

"It's impossible for a democratically elected government to 'steal' from you." - Mark Bunster, government employee, 28-Dec-2009

Wow.  It's not theft if the government does it. NO MATTER WHAT IT IS.  Bills of Attainder?  Okay with Mark, apparently.

Wow.

Why a 'no' vote on 66-67 is both wise and safe

I keep hearing that we have to raise Oregon taxes to save key services from cuts. Looks like that argument is false.

Read on.

-Tom

Detailed Back to Basics Budget is a better plan for Oregon

Salem, OR – Senate Republicans announced a revised Back to Basics Budget Tuesday, saying that there were other alternatives to raising taxes or drastically cutting services in the midst of a historic recession.  Republicans have been presenting alternative budget proposals to Democrats since last May. 

“Republicans want to create jobs for the thousands of Oregon families that are struggling to find work, and at the same time we want to avoid service cuts during these difficult times,” said Senator Chris Telfer (R-Bend).  “This budget says, ‘hey, there are other options that don’t involve business choking tax increases or service cuts.’”

The Back to Basics Budget plan consists of eleven points where savings and efficiencies through the remainder of the budget cycle can be used to balance the budget, instead of job-choking tax increases.

Back to Basics Budget:

1)      Ask state employees to pay for their health care at the

same rate teachers currently do                                                                 $131 million

2)      Roll back the pay raises granted to state employees                                           $160 million

3)      Eliminate Department of Revenue costs to administer the tax increases            $1.5 million

4)      Eliminate duplicate funding for the Bureau of Labor and Industries                     $1 million

5)      Eliminate state funding to the Portland Art Museum                                             $0.31 million

6)      Use over-collected funds from the Government Ethics Commission                 $0.5 million

7)      Suspend part of the BETC credit                                                                $85 million

8)      Suspend General Fund Spending on new “Autos & Aircraft”                       $5 million

9)      Transfer some money from the State’s Risk Assessment Account                       $13 million

10)  Use part of the $ 3 billion in “Other Fund” Ending Balances                       $133 million

11)  Use part of the Education Stability Fund / Rainy Day Fund                            $203  million

TOTAL            $733 million

“Should voters reject the tax increases, we can still protect our most important priorities like funding K-12, community colleges, universities and social services,” said Telfer.  “For many voters, removing $733 million out of the economy and cutting another 70,000 jobs is a tough pill to swallow.  This list of ideas I believe makes that point that there are other options out there.  If we think creatively, we can protect jobs and core services.” 

Last session, Republicans built a Back to Basics Budget using a philosophy that funds the most important, core services first.  After creating a starting point that holds services like K-12 education, higher education, public safety agencies and human services providers harmless from any cuts from their 2007-09 funding levels, Republicans made targeted funding additions to protect vulnerable and needy Oregonians and ensure that new state troopers can continue patrolling streets and neighborhoods. 

###

<< DETAILED ENDING FUND BALANCE LIST AVAILABLE ON REQUEST>>

Back to Basics Budget:

A Better Plan for Oregon

When lawmakers return to Salem in February they could be looking at a $733 budget hole.  The hole can be filled while still funding education, from K-12 though community colleges and universities, at levels approved by the Legislature in 2009.  The goal is to reduce the cost of government without reducing services to Oregonians.

The Plan:

12)  Ask state employees to pay for their health care at the

same rate teachers currently do                                                                 $131 million

13)  Roll back the pay raises granted to state employees                                           $160 million

14)  Eliminate Department of Revenue costs to administer the tax increases            $1.5 million

15)  Eliminate new funding for the Bureau of Labor and Industries                     $1 million

16)  Eliminate state funding to the Portland Art Museum                                             $0.31 million

17)  Use over-collected funds from the Government Ethics Commission                 $0.5 million

18)  Suspend part of the BETC credit                                                                $85 million

19)  Suspend General Fund Spending on new “Autos & Aircraft”                       $5 million

20)  Transfer some money from the State’s Risk Assessment Account                       $13 million

21)  Use part of the $ 3 billion in “Other Fund” Ending Balances                       $133 million

22)  Use part of the Education Stability Fund / Rainy Day Fund                            $203  million

TOTAL            $733 million

Other Savings                                                                                                 Approx $500 million

Back to Basics Detail

1)      State Employee Benefits - $131 Million - Much has been made of the fact that Oregon Public Employees do not contribute toward their health insurance premiums.  The same cannot be said for teachers.  The average teacher contributes $187.07 per month toward their health insurance.  According to DAS, 47,054 employees receive fully paid health insurance.  If each of those public employees paid the same as the average teacher, the state of Oregon would save $211 million per biennium or $131 million in what is left of the current biennium.  Oregon is one of the only states that continues to offer fully paid health insurance to state employees.  Elected officials at the state level are also included in this plan.

2)      State Employee Pay raises - $160 million – Eliminate the pay raises granted by the Governor without legislative input. Would apply moving forward.

3)      Tax Administration - $1.501 million – Eliminate the funding to the Department of Revenue to support additional work driven by an increase in corporate taxes.  The money will not be needed if the taxes fail (House Bill 5054 – 2009).

4)      Bureau of Labor and Industries Appropriation - $1 million – Remove appropriation from the Bureau of Labor and Industries that was given to the Commissioner’s Office, the Civil Rights Division, the Wage and Hour Division and Apprenticeship and Training.  House Bill 5024 (2009) originally eliminated the funding.  This money is in addition to the $642,861 appropriated to the Department of Justice for Civil Rights work (House Bill 5054 – 2009).

5)      Portland Art Museum - $0.31 million – Remove appropriation to the Portland Art Museum from February 2009 forward.  The original allocation was $500,000 (House Bill 5054 – 2009).

6)      Reallocate Over-Collection by the Ethics Commission - $0.5 million – According to The Oregonian, the Oregon Government Ethics Commission is collecting $600,000 more during the 2009-11 biennium than they are authorized to spend.  Reallocating $500,000 leaves the OGEC with $100,000 in reserve.

7)      Suspend Part of the Business Energy Tax Credit - $85 million – Projections from the Legislative Revenue Office show the Business Energy Tax Credit will cost the state $167 million during the 2009-11 biennium.

8)      Suspend General Fund Spending on new “Autos & Aircraft” - $5.497 million – The 2009-11 budget allocated $5.497 million in General Fund revenue for the capital purchases of “Automotive and Aircraft.”

9)      State Risk Assessment Account - $13 million - $20.2 million was swept from this fund in 2009 and the fund is projected to have an ending balance of $63.5 million at the close of the 2009-11 biennium. 

10)  Transfer Excess Other Fund Balances - $133 million – With the release of the 2009-11 revised Other Fund Ending Balance we believe there are approximately $133 million, out of approximately $3 billion, that can be reallocated.  Lawmakers reallocated $82.9 million in 2009 the plug another budget hole.

11)  Education Stability Fund / Rainy Day Fund - $203 million – The Education Stability Fund and Rainy Day Fund are expected to contain $185 million and $127 million respectively at the close of the 2009-11 biennium.

Other Savings

The Department of Human Services has embarked on a plan to save over $500 million.  The plan, called the Transformation Roadmap, has already saved $40 million and DHS should be encouraged to speed up the process.  At the same time other state agencies should launch similar plans.  What other efficiencies and savings could be found?  It makes sense to increase efficiencies before we ask Oregonians to send more money to the state. 

Obama's Executive Style

This is an impressive piece of journalism, and it reveals what I see as a solid executive style by Obama.  That's especially significant due to his relative lack of prior executive experience.

What's to like?

• Acknowledging when someone you disagree with is right
• Not blaming people and instead focusing on systems
• Willingness to listen and be flexible in approach while maintaining constancy of goals

Not a bad collection of attributes.  We could all of us do worse.

On being open-minded, or trying to

A friend wrote me to say:

I love you man, but some of the people you have in your corner are about as far removed from reality as can be possible. I know you and I have had many discussions in the past on numerous topics and I respect your intellect and ability to be open to new ideas and concepts. However, the views that are being espoused by your followers are lacking the foresight and lucidity I've grown to expect from you and your arguments.

This troubles me. I don't think you fit in with this crowd. You are too tolerant, open, and richer in life experiences.

Your thoughts welcome.

I replied:

I make a point of continually exposing myself to (oops, that sounds wrong -- try "reading and listening to") very different viewpoints.  It is extremely easy to tune in to folks who mostly agree with me, and then I start to be unable to perceive the world view of others.

Once we start to pick and choose our "facts" and data based on how well they agree with what we already believe, we build mental echo-chambers where we only hear our own conclusions.

For me the antidote is to always listen to folks on many sides, always try to understand how their world view has internal consistency, and resist the temptation to write them off as fools, knaves, etc.

When I find myself dismissing anybody as being "removed from reality" that's a warning sign that I'm starting to fall into that trap.  It often happens when I either mistaken (or I admit sometimes deliberately) mis-understand someone's position, and then I find it emotionally rewarding to pretend that that's their actual position.  The more absurd I make them in my head, the easier it is to dismiss them, rather than face the daunting task of refuting them on the merits.

True tolerance is not for sissies, nor is it for the lazy.  Maybe it's Sisyphean.  Let's just say, that's how I roll. ;-)

Obama and Race

NY Times covers Obama's rejection of race as the "lead cause" of criticisms of his policies.

What I love about the article, and about Obama, is that he's doing what I loved him for during the race -- being noble, taking the high road, and opening the door to mutual understanding.  It's awesome.

Obama could yet tack to the middle, get 80% of his agenda through Congress in his first year in office, and become a legendary President.  (I hope he doesn't because I oppose most of that 80% -- I'm talking about what's possible, not what I prefer.)

When you mis-state your opponent's motives, you make it almost impossible to persuade him.  That's why I've loved the anti-town-hall, anti-tea-party rhetoric -- it's utterly condescending and dismissive, which hardens the opposition. 

Surveys consistently show much higher levels of racism by white Democrats than white Republicans, which is why I'm not worrying about racism as a driving force within the Tea Party movement.  (I stay alert to be sure closet racists do not try to join any groups I'm in.)  My opposition to several of Obama's policies is based on opposing those policies.

You'll recall how frantic the Democratic Party operatives were, running up to the 2008 general election, about visiting blue-collar heavily Democratic districts, giving speeches and disseminating talking points through the unions to urge THOSE voters to vote for Obama even though he was black.

Democrats had good reason to worry.
http://falconscrest.blogspot.com/2006/06/miserly-republicans-unprincipled.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/22/AR2006062201474_pf.html
http://hangrightpolitics.com/2006/06/20/another-democratic-myth-exposed/
http://hangrightpolitics.com/2006/06/14/those-racist-and-intolerant-republicans/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-2_7_06_BB.html
http://www.lifelikepundits.com/archives/002533.php

Reaction to Obama’s school speech is tragic, sinister and sickening

This is my response to the column found here.

Dear Bob Ray -

Thank you for your courage in writing about a tough topic, and more courageously, admitting your ignorance.

Fortunately, the key to your enlightenment is at hand.

You start off assuming that the folks you disagree with are "frightened, misguided and hate-filled".  When you assume your opponents are irrational, it takes the burden off of you to see how and why their world view might make sense to them.  You don't take the time and trouble to see what subset of the facts they are focused on.  And you thus have no way to speak to them in their own terms.

This used to be the problem the Bush administration was accused of having with regard to the Middle East -- our opponents were all "evil" and understanding them wasn't necessary or desirable.  That Bush mindset, to the extent it guided foreign policy, codified intolerance.

And now you're doing it to your fellow Americans.

Tell me that, if Bush 43 had issued a lesson plan instructing children to write themselves letters regarding how they could support him, you seriously would have thought that was normal, standard, and unremarkable.  I would have found that creepy and overreaching.

As Hillary Clinton so eloquently put it, it's very American to dissent, debate and disagree.  It's not very American to have a President telling teachers to tell our children to write themselves letters listing ways they can support the Dear Leader.  Very North Korean, maybe.

If you can accept the possibility -- just the possibility -- that folks on the other side from you are actually motivated by love of their children, love of their country, and a different interpretation of some key facts, you can love them and respect them enough to figure out how to talk to them and about them in ways that will actually connect with them.  Maybe you'll even become persuasive.

Until then, the most intolerant person in this picture is still you.  You've got to be the change you want to see.

I think you can do it.

Cheers.
 -Tom

Tax Referral

A friend wrote to ask me:

Tom I spent 6 hours last Saturday in front of Aloha Post Office helping get signatures on two petitions which constituted the recently passed tax increase for Oregonians. One of our patrons use to work in accounting for Nike Inc. She was very convincing in accusing Nike of not paying any taxes at all some years, and many years paying less than the average family of 4. She said it is shameless and unethical the games many corporations play to keep from having to pay taxes. If this is so, perhaps the bill concerning changes to corporations taxes is a much needed overhaul. I don't know what to think. Are we the small people being manipulated by invisible connections with corporations to fight their battle to protect their unethical tax avoidance games????

What hard core information does Tea Party have? Do we have any tax attorneys or CPA's who can address what I've heard and speak to this problem?

Good for you for investing the time to roll back the tax increases.

It's typical of big-government types to criticize businesses for FOLLOWING the rules. When a Leftist creates a maze of incredibly complex rules, and then discovers that the result isn't what he expected, he accuses other people of being "unethical" or evil. In fact, Nike would be vulnerable to shareholder lawsuits if it failed to use every available lawful opportunity to lower its tax burden.

I have no doubt that Nike's tax liability was legitimately zero in Oregon in many years -- they do a lot of deductible R&D here, and don't have all that many sales here. Income tax is based on profit, not spending or activity, and state taxes are limited to your activities inside a given state.

The hard reality is that businesses never pay taxes, they only collect them. And yes there is a disparate impact when a bigger company can hire expensive talent to understand all the rules -- and lobby for loopholes -- when smaller firms cannot.

I know one small, family owned oil company that will make ZERO profit for 2008 and 2009 and will have to pay $30,000 under the new tax. How is that fair by any stretch of the imagination?

Finally, all of these tax increases were unneeded -- the state of Oregon is sitting on $4.9 billion in cash of which $3.5 billion is unrestricted. They had no legitimate need to raise taxes $2 billion.